Our composite recession probability score aggregates 20+ leading indicators into a single, easy-to-understand risk gauge. Updated daily with fresh data.
Get real-time alerts when this indicator changes. Full dashboard access with historical data, charts, and multi-indicator correlation analysis.
View Plans - Starting FreeOur composite score is displayed above. Below 35 is normal, 35-54 is watch, 55-74 is elevated, 75+ is crisis-level risk.
The model uses yield curve spreads, Sahm Rule, labor market data, consumer confidence, housing starts, ISM, credit spreads, and volatility measures.
The model has been backtested against the 2001, 2008, and 2020 recessions with 71.4% directional accuracy.