In-depth articles on recession indicators, systemic risk, and global macroeconomics. Data-driven. No noise.
After 26+ months of inversion, the 10Y-3M Treasury spread is normalizing. Re-steepening has historically been the final signal before recessions begin. Here's what the data shows.
Read more →These five indicators have flashed before every US recession since 1970. We pull the live data for each one and show you exactly what they're signaling right now.
Read more →You don't need to predict the recession. You need to know which assets survive them. Here's what 50 years of macro data says about building a portfolio that works in any regime.
Read more →Most recession trackers look at 2-3 indicators. Here's how recession.today combines 20+ signals across credit, labor, housing, manufacturing, and market stress into a single actionable score — and why…
Read more →Oil prices are surging past $99 on Iran supply disruption. Every US recession since 1973 was preceded by an oil price spike. Here's what the data says about the current situation.
Read more →Jerome Powell's chairmanship ends in 2026. Every Fed chair transition since 1970 was followed by either a recession or a major policy pivot. What does the data say about the next 12 months?
Read more →Gold hit $5,600 in January 2026 then dropped to $4,700. With XAU/USD hovering around $5,000, is gold still a recession hedge or has it become a risk asset? Data-driven analysis.
Read more →The Sahm Rule and inverted yield curve get all the attention. But five lesser-known indicators often flash red months before the headlines. Here's what to watch in 2026.
Read more →Bitcoin was designed for financial crisis. But does it actually hold up when recession hits? We analyze BTC, ETH, and crypto performance across recessions, correlation with macro, and what the data sa…
Read more →How close are quantum computers to breaking Bitcoin? We analyze the threat timeline, current quantum benchmarks, and what it means for BTC as a macro asset.
Read more →Composite recession probability analysis for the US economy. Yield curve inverted 18+ months, Sahm Rule triggered, labor market softening, disinflation ongoing. Real-time risk assessment.
Read more →Analysis of bear signals in the stock market. How the yield curve inversion, high-yield spreads, and VIX are warning equity investors of potential drawdowns.
Read more →Analysis of crypto market correlation with macroeconomic indicators in 2026. Bitcoin as digital gold vs correlation with S&P 500. Fed policy impact on crypto.
Read more →Comprehensive guide to the yield curve inversion. What it is, why it matters, its historical accuracy as a recession predictor, and the current 18-month signal.
Read more →Data-driven analysis of when the next recession may arrive. USA Risk Score, yield curve inversion, Sahm Rule, and leading economic indicators provide real-time signals.
Read more →Analysis of global debt levels in early 2026. IMF data shows $310 trillion in total debt. Country breakdown, sustainability risks, and what central banks are watching.
Read more →A data-driven answer to whether the US economy is currently in a recession. NBER definition, leading vs coincident vs lagging indicators, and real-time economic data.
Read more →The 7 key recession indicators that professional traders and institutional analysts monitor. Yield curve, Sahm Rule, CPI, PMI, housing starts, and more with current data.
Read more →Comprehensive FAQ about recessions: what they are, what causes them, how long they last, how to predict them, and what happens to your portfolio.
Read more →The Sahm Rule has predicted every US recession since 1970 with 100% accuracy. Learn how it works, its current reading, and what it signals for the economy.
Read more →Compare recession risk across all G7 economies: US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, and Canada. Bond yields, inflation, industrial production data for each country.
Read more →Eurozone recession risk analysis. ECB policy outlook, German industrial production trends, French OAT yields, Italian BTP spreads, and what the bond market signals.
Read more →Learn the warning signs of a stock market crash before it happens. Yield curve vs S&P 500, high-yield credit spreads, VIX, and historical recession-market relationships.
Read more →The inverted yield curve explained: why it predicts recessions, what the current T10Y2Y and T10Y3M spreads are saying, and historical accuracy of the signal.
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