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71.4% backtested directional accuracy on 21 FRED indicators. The same leading indicators the IMF, Fed and World Bank use — on your screen, free, no card required.
Most investors realise a recession only when it’s too late. By then, smart money has already moved. Recession Today puts the same leading indicators used by the IMF, Fed, and World Bank on your screen — in real time, with zero noise.
Recessions don't announce themselves. The yield curve inverted 26 months ago. The Sahm Rule is flashing. Smart money already moved — the data was there, in public indicators, all along. Recession Today puts those same indicators in front of you, updated every 15 minutes, so you're never the last to know.
The same data central banks and institutional desks use
Real-time composite score from 21 FRED indicators — updated every cycle.
Nine dashboards. One screen. The same indicators central banks and institutional desks use.
21 leading indicators: yield curve, labor, housing, credit spreads. Sahm Rule live.
Free7 indicators per country — unemployment, inflation, yields, OECD CLI, GDP, confidence.
FreeG20 aggregate: GDP growth, inflation, unemployment. IMF data.
Free50+ economies: macro indicators, FX, stock index, IMF projections.
FreeMilitary expenditure as % of GDP across the alliance.
Free18 emerging economies: GDP, CPI, unemployment.
Free27 countries: Debt/GDP, deficit, current account.
FreeFed balance sheet, M2 money supply, Reverse Repo.
FreeEverything in one place — the full macro picture at a glance.
FreeBuilt on the Bounded Knowability Horizon — 11 interconnected subsystems of the US economy, tracked in real time.
The core engine. Tracks 11 subsystems (liquidity, credit, banking, real economy, housing, markets, narrative…) and detects the regime shift before it becomes obvious. 11 subsystems in the US, 9 in Germany & Japan, 7 in Romania.
FreeLive probabilities for recession / stagflation / expansion regimes, with transition matrices.
Detects tipping points in macro series before they cascade.
Composite early-warning signal from 7 engines: RPE, BKH, CTD, yield curve, plumbing, MCI, global sync.
Measures how crowded positions are across credit, equities, FX — crowded trades unwind fast.
GSS score — how synchronized global cycles are (OECD CLI, China credit, Baltic Dry).
Real-time nowcasts and bull / bear / mixed scenario analysis.
From yield curves to debt monitors — actionable macro intelligence at your fingertips.
Composite probability from 21 leading indicators: yield curve, labor market, housing, and credit spreads.
FreeAggregated scores for all G7 nations with cross-border spillover analysis and country breakdowns.
FreeIMF & World Bank data for 50+ economies. Regional breakdowns for Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and Africa.
FreeEarly-warning system combining currency pressure, credit spreads, volatility regimes, and systemic risk indicators.
Free2-10 spreads, 3m-10y inversion depth, and 6-month change rates. Historical backtesting across 6 decades of data.
FreeCentral bank balance sheets, M2 money supply trends, reserve accumulation, and dollar funding conditions.
FreeSee exactly where the economy stands. No credit card needed. No hidden limits.
"In 2008, millions of people lost their savings, their homes, their lives — not because they made bad decisions, but because nobody told them what was coming."
Dacian taught himself to trade in 2021. He knew charts, but not what moved them. So he built a system that tracks the same macro indicators institutional desks watch — FRED, IMF, World Bank, OECD — in one place. No Bloomberg terminal. No expensive subscription. Just the data, finally accessible. The core dashboard is free because information that protects people's capital should never be locked behind a paywall.
"I can't predict the future. Nobody can. But I can see what hurts — and where the stress is spreading."
Read the full story →Everything you need to know about recession indicators and our platform
Yes. The Free plan gives you US recession risk, G7 scores, global risk, crisis radar, debt monitor, liquidity, central bank tracker, calendar and world projections — forever. No credit card, no trial countdown, no catch.
Historical backtesting shows approximately 71.4% directional accuracy over the past decade — the Top 3 most vulnerable sectors underperform the Bottom 3 in 3-month forward returns. No model is 100%, but this is the same data institutions use.
Indicators update every 15 minutes, around the clock. Live markets refresh every 60 seconds. No stale weekend data — the dashboard is always current.
No. The dashboard is visual and built for everyone — the same way a pilot reads instruments without building the engine. Each score is explained in plain language.
Yes — REST API access and CSV export are available on the Pro plan ($96/month), plus webhook integrations for custom alerts and data pipelines.
256-bit SSL encryption, GDPR compliant, passwords hashed with PBKDF2 (260,000 iterations), payments handled by Stripe. Essential cookies only — no tracking, no third-party analytics.
See exactly where the economy stands. No credit card needed. No hidden limits.
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