Millions lost their savings. Millions lost their homes. Millions lost their jobs.
And it wasn't their fault.
We can't tell you exactly what comes next.
We can show you what is changing now.
Select a country to see its current economic conditions, recession risk, regime and key drivers.
Loading system state…
Global Recession Risk
Recession.Today helps you follow economic and financial conditions across countries — from recession risk and economic regimes to liquidity, credit and markets.
See what is changing
Growth, liquidity, credit, policy and markets don't move alone. See how they move together.
I didn't build Recession.Today to predict the future.
I built it because I wanted to understand what was happening underneath the charts.
Not the candles. The system underneath.
Growth. Inflation. Liquidity. Credit. Policy. Markets.
Look at them together, not one at a time.
Output, employment and the real economy — where a slowdown first shows.
Prices and expectations — the pressure the policy response is built on.
Money, reserves and funding conditions — the plumbing of the system.
Borrowing and spreads — how stress transmits from banks to business.
Rates, central bank tools and fiscal response.
Equity, rates, FX and credit markets — where the system reprices first.
Today's system has a history.
Compare today's conditions with previous periods of stress and change. Historical context, not prediction.
Historical similarity is context — never a guarantee of a future outcome.
How we measure recession risk.
We observe. We compare. We test.
Data first. Diagnosis second. No hindsight disguised as certainty.
Don't take our word for it. Test it.
RPE v2.2
Recession Probability Engine
- Recall0.82
- Precision0.70
- Sample2002–2026
- Horizon6 months
- Confirmation2-month delay
RRI
Recession Risk Index
- F1 score0.857
- Months validated497
- Recessions covered36
- Recall83.3%
- Precision88.2%
NY Fed
Yield curve probability
- Current13.9%
- ParametersOfficial
- ModelProbit (Estrella)
- StatusLOW
Explore the Recession Dashboard — Free
Start with the global system, explore countries and follow the key indicators.
Free
- Live system state & recession probability
- Yield curve, liquidity & core indicators
- Weekly macro briefAI-generated weekly summary
Trader
- Live markets, sector & FX grid
- Daily macro briefAI-generated daily thesis
- Alerts & data exports
Pro
- All 7 systems + composite dashboard
- Daily macro briefAI-generated daily thesis
- Alerts, exports & API access
- ETF, sector & portfolio tools
No credit card required.
Recession risk, explained.
What is Recession.Today?
Recession.Today brings economic and financial conditions into one place — including recession risk, economic regimes, liquidity, credit and markets.
What indicators are used?
950+ FRED and global data series across 22 countries: yield curve, credit spreads, unemployment, housing, manufacturing, liquidity, central-bank and market data. Every signal exposes its series, source, frequency, timestamp and model version.
Can Recession.Today predict the next recession?
No model can know the future with certainty. Recession.Today diagnoses the current system state, identifies regime transitions and monitors what changes next.
How is the recession probability calculated?
The RPE model (v2.2) translates BKH organ scores, G(t) and stressed-subsystem counts into a 6-month recession probability with confidence bands. It is validated on 2002-2026 history (recall 0.82) and confirmed over a 2-month window.
How often is the system updated?
Update frequency depends on the source. Market data changes intraday; core engines (BKH, RPE, yield curve, CTD, SBI, plumbing) recompute 4x daily; alerts run every 15 minutes. We distinguish fetch time from observation time.
Who is it for?
Macro researchers, asset allocators, risk teams and independent traders who need an early, honest read on systemic conditions — not a black-box forecast.
Is this investment advice?
No. Recession.Today provides economic and financial information for research purposes. Historical similarity is context, not a guarantee of future outcomes.