It started with a question.
What actually moves the market?
When I started learning technical analysis in 2021, I learned how to read charts.
Patterns. Support and resistance. Price action. All the things you spend hours learning when you first get into trading.
But the more I learned, the more I realised that the chart was showing me the result.
I wanted to understand the cause.
So I started looking at economic data.
Yield curves. Liquidity. Interest rates. Credit. The indicators that sit underneath the markets.
I was checking them manually, roughly once a week, trying to understand whether the system was moving toward a recession.
But I wanted something better.
Something that could bring the information together, process it and show me what was changing.
So I built a tool for myself.
The first version of Recession.Today wasn't a company.
It was a localhost.
I pulled economic information together and put it into a dashboard so I could stop checking everything manually.
The goal was simple:
Open one place. See what is happening.
The more I worked on it, the more I realised that the problem wasn't really about finding one indicator.
It was about understanding the system behind the indicators.
And that changed the question.
Can we know what comes next?
I don't think we can.
Markets don't move because of one predetermined cause.
A war can change them. A pandemic can change them. A drought can change them. A bank can fail. A policy decision can change financial conditions. A bubble can break.
And sometimes the cause itself is something nobody could have known in advance.
That's why I don't believe that anyone can honestly tell you exactly where the market will be tomorrow.
The future is not something we can know with certainty.
But that doesn't mean we are blind.
We can study what is happening now.
Once a cause exists, its effects begin to appear.
Liquidity changes. Credit changes. Markets react. Businesses respond. Households respond. Housing changes. Policy changes again. And stress can move from one part of the economy to another.
We can observe those changes.
We can compare them with history.
We can look at how different parts of the system interact.
We can ask where conditions are improving, where they are deteriorating, and where the signals stop telling the same story.
Not prediction. Observation.
Not certainty. Context.That is the idea behind Recession.Today.
The economy is a system.
The economy isn't one number.
It's a collection of connected systems.
Liquidity. Credit. Banking. The real economy. Housing. Markets. Policy. Expectations.
They don't always move at the same time.
One can begin changing while another still looks healthy.
And sometimes the important information is in the gap between them.
What happens when official policy says one thing, while the underlying data starts showing something different?
What happens when liquidity tightens but the market keeps behaving as if nothing changed?
What happens when stress appears in one part of the system and begins spreading?
These are the things I want Recession.Today to help us see.
The Bounded Knowability Horizon
This thinking eventually led me to develop what I call the Bounded Knowability Horizon — BKH.
The name sounds complicated.
The idea isn't.
We cannot know everything about the future. But we can know more about the system we are in right now.
BKH looks at the economy through connected subsystems and tries to understand where stress is appearing, how it is changing and whether it is spreading.
It is not designed to tell us exactly what tomorrow will look like.
It is designed to help us understand what is happening today.
The BKH model is currently functional for the United States, and I am continuing to develop, test and improve it before expanding it to other countries.
Why make it free?
This part is simple.
Sapientia ipsa libertas.
A lot of financial information is available.
But much of the useful information is scattered across different sources, difficult to interpret, or locked behind expensive platforms.
Institutions have their tools. Professional desks have their tools. Large investors have their tools.
I believe ordinary people and retail investors should have tools too.
That's why the core Recession.Today dashboard is free.
Not because the information isn't valuable.
Because I believe information this important should be accessible.
You should be able to explore the data, look at the system and make your own judgment.
What Recession.Today gives you
Explore countries, economic conditions, recession risk, markets and the global system.
Go deeper into the indicators, relationships, regimes and historical context behind what you are seeing.
Follow how conditions change over time.
Compare the present with the past and investigate the signals behind the headlines.
Use the information to build your own view.
We don't tell you what to buy or sell.
We give you a clearer view of the system so you can decide for yourself.
I won't give you the formula. I'll give you the dashboard.
You don't have to believe me.
You don't have to believe the model.
You don't have to believe the headline.
Look at the data.
Explore the system. Compare it with history. Question it. Test it. Make your own judgment.
That's what I wanted when I started building this.
And that's what I want Recession.Today to become.
We can't tell you exactly what comes next.