The Sahm Rule identifies recession onset when the 3-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.
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View Plans - Starting FreeThe Sahm Rule, developed by former Fed economist Claudia Sahm, signals a recession has likely begun when the three-month moving average of the U.S. unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more above its 12-month low.
The latest reading is displayed above. When the value crosses 0.50, recession risk is elevated.
The Sahm Rule has correctly identified every U.S. recession since 1970 with no false positives.